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Most of Western Pennsylvania will see sharp declines in population over the next 25 years, and communities are getting creative to fight it, including offering cash.
Sharon and Hermitage in Mercer County are giving $5,000 each to household that moves there, alongside other benefits like YMCA memberships or access to a coworking space, as a part of a collaboration with MakeMyMove, an online relocation marketplace. Greenville, also in Mercer County, is offering nonmonetary benefits.
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The initiative caught the eye of Adriana Krasnow, who lives with her husband and two young children in San Diego. Krasnow works remotely and wanted to leave San Diego due to the high cost of living.
Although she grew up in Hermitage, she hadn't considered moving back until she heard of the MakeMyMove program. After looking into the cost of living, she and her family are planning to move to Hermitage next month.
“I thought a lot about my childhood and how growing up in the City of Hermitage was just, honestly, a beautiful experience, and I love the small hometown feeling,” said Krasnow, who lived in Hermitage until she was 21.
Hermitage, population about 16,000, and small towns across the region are having trouble attracting residents. Getting people to stay — and to move there — is difficult when larger communities may offer the draw of more jobs, housing options, and things to do.
State officials now have a sense of urgency, too — the Rural Population Revitalization Commission, created last year by lawmakers, is tasked with recommending how to bring in and keep residents in rural areas.
Leaders in some communities see a way to capitalize on an increasing number of remote workers across the country. MakeMyMove campaigns focus on remote workers who can relocate without losing their job.
In Mercer County, they’re working to fight a steady annual loss of around 1% of the county’s population, said Jake Rickert, associate executive director of Penn-Northwest Development Corp., which helped organize the program with MakeMyMove.
Population loss cuts into the economic success of counties because of smaller tax and customer bases, said Kyle Kopko, executive director of the Center for Rural Pennsylvania.
Mercer County has had some success retaining residents through workforce development that landed jobs within the county, but it still lost around 370 people last year, Rickert said. Now, officials are turning their sights to attracting newcomers.
“We still have to generate that revenue, but less people to generate it from. Our schools receive less funding, our infrastructure, our roads, all that receives less funding. It decreases our power and our representation at the state and federal level,” Rickert said. "Population is the answer to about 95% of these rural communities’ problems.”
But with 157 applicants, many of whom are families of two or more, Mercer County could theoretically fight population loss solely through the MakeMyMove campaign if it had the funding. For the pilot of the campaign, the entire county is only accepting five households.
Mercer is far from the only county hoping to grow — or at least stabilize — its population to avoid the damage of decline. Overall, Pennsylvania is expected to grow to 13.2 million people by 2050, an increase of almost 2% from 2020, the last census.
But the data is foreboding for many Western Pennsylvania counties. Just two counties of those counties are projected to see a population increase over 25 years: Erie with an 0.3% increase and Indiana with a 10.9% increase, according to research from the Pennsylvania State Data Center in collaboration with the Center for Rural Pennsylvania.
The rest will see declines, mostly 5% to 15%. Allegheny is expected to lose almost 2% of its population, but the most rural areas are taking the worst hits. Forest County, which contains part of the Allegheny National Forest, will lose almost 20% of its population
Indiana County Commissioner Sherene Hess said the county’s growth is anticipated partly due to Indiana University of Pennsylvania’s presence bringing in students and families, as well as the soon-to-open College of Osteopathic Medicine.
Seven regions in Pennsylvania — ranging from cities to counties to sets of counties — are now in talks with MakeMyMove about potentially establishing an incentive program, said Evan Hock, MakeMyMove co-founder and CEO.
But for some, the key to growth isn’t nearly as flashy as offering cash.
Butler County has been bucking trends, growing population steadily for years.
Relatively low tax rates, among other factors spur people to move to there, said Mark Gordon, the county chief of economic development and planning.
“It all boils down to quality of life. Butler County really offers an exceptional quality of life. We have smaller hometown feels with large city amenities,” he said.
And yet, Butler is predicted to lose 7.5% of its population by 2050, something Gordon attributes to state and national trends of people having fewer children.
The data backs it up. More people are moving into rural areas than moving out, but the primary factor in population loss is deaths outpacing births, Kopko said.
The eastern side of the commonwealth is anticipating some growth, particularly in counties close to Philadelphia. This is in part thanks to proximity to highly populated areas like New York City, said Kopko, who is also chair of the Rural Population Revitalization Commission.
The commission made four recommendations after its first meeting in February, primarily designed to help understand how government policies and programs affect rural communities. In the long-term, they’re seeking strategies that will improve quality of life, and by extension make communities more attractive to newcomers.
One recommendation is to change a question on the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to narrow the definition of high-speed internet to not include DSL, with the aim of eliminating blind spots where DSL internet coverage is not up to par.
One reason: Growing population and attracting newcomers is difficult without robust internet connectivity.
The commission also recommended that some state departments assess prominent programs and services to examine the impact on rural areas.
Abigail Hakas is a reporter for Next Generation Newsroom, part of the Center for Media Innovation at Point Park University. Reach her at abigail.hakas@pointpark.edu.
