This article is made possible through Spotlight PA’s partnership with NOTUS, a nonpartisan news organization that covers government and politics with the fresh eyes of early career journalists and the expertise of veteran reporters.
Progressives are already plotting a primary challenge to Sen. John Fetterman when he’s up for reelection in 2028. But whether Fetterman’s around to be primaried at all is another question.
The freshman senator seems to be leaving all doors open, insiders told NOTUS: reelection, retirement and even a long-shot run for president. Some think he’s likely to leave the Senate, which they say he doesn’t seem to enjoy much.
“I don’t think he’s running,” one former Fetterman staffer told NOTUS. “He didn’t like the job, he missed home, and now is a pariah within the party. I think he wants no part of being in D.C.”
When NOTUS asked Fetterman whether he’ll run for reelection, he replied: “It’s 2025.”
When NOTUS asked if he’d be interested in running for president, Fetterman replied: “It’s 2025.”
Then, on a walk back from voting, Fetterman stopped and quipped again to NOTUS, “It’s 2025,” adding a satirical thumbs up. (Later, while in the backseat of a car, Fetterman rolled down his window and again said, “It’s 2025.”)
In a later response to a request for comment detailing this story, Fetterman said in a statement: “Accept the mystery. 2028 is gonna be crazy.” He also included a GIF from the 2009 movie “A Serious Man” of a character saying, “Accept the mystery.”
It’s the latest political question mark for a politician who’s confounded his Democratic peers in and outside of the Capitol. When running against GOP nominee Mehmet Oz, a former daytime television host, in 2022, Fetterman was cast as a progressive martyr. His uniform of basketball shorts and a hoodie branded him as an everyman’s politician. He openly warned voters that he wouldn’t be like other Democratic moderates, such as former Sen. Joe Manchin (who ultimately became an independent).
But since coming to Congress, Fetterman has hugged the centrist line, at least by modern standards. Fetterman voted with Republicans throughout the shutdown fight, crossed party lines to confirm some of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees and broke with some Democrats in his staunch support of Israel’s strikes on Gaza.
That record has drawn ire — and possible challengers. Right now, these primary challenges are essentially theoretical. Nobody has declared a run against the senator, though the Pennsylvania Working Families Party said it will support a primary challenger to Fetterman in 2028. But there is speculation around a number of Pennsylvania political figures who could step up, whether it’s a primary challenge or an open field.
Democrats who could launch bids for the seat include Reps. Brendan Boyle and Chris Deluzio. Boyle criticized Fetterman’s visit to Mar-a-Lago in January and called the senator “Trump’s favorite Democrat” in October. He told NOTUS he’s open to running for Fetterman’s seat.
“Appropriately so, I am entirely focused on my own reelection in 2026 and Democrats winning back the House in 2026,” Boyle said. “But after 2026, I don’t rule anything in or out.”
Other Pennsylvania Democrats, including Philadelphia-area Reps. Mary Gay Scanlon and Madeleine Dean, also told NOTUS they wouldn’t rule out a potential run for Senate.
“That’s so exciting,” Scanlon said of the idea that she is considered a possible candidate. “But I’m always just looking at the problems in front of me. I’m not going to speculate about anything that far out.”
Though Dean said there was “no way” she would launch a challenge against Fetterman, she clarified her calculus would “absolutely” change if the senator chose not to run for reelection.
“We’ll see what happens,” she said.
Former Rep. Conor Lamb, who lost to Fetterman in the 2022 primary, has also been floated as a potential contender. Lamb has been speaking at town hall meetings across the state, but has not made any clear indication about whether he will run.
J.J. Balaban, a Democratic ad maker in Pennsylvania, told NOTUS that he thinks it’s likely Fetterman still isn’t sure himself whether he’ll run for reelection. But the senator sure isn’t acting like a future candidate, he argued.
Fetterman’s third-quarter FEC filings show his lowest fundraising total since he first announced his candidacy in 2021. His campaign raised less than $330,000 from July to the end of September. By comparison, Senator Dave McCormick, Fetterman’s Republican counterpart, raised more than $890,000 during that period. He is not up for reelection until 2030.
Fetterman also experienced significant health challenges throughout his time in the Senate. The senator suffered a near-fatal stroke while campaigning for his seat in 2022, was hospitalized for severe depression in 2023 and fell due to a heart health condition last month.
“He has given the very distinct impression that he does not enjoy doing the job on top of obviously significant health challenges,” Balaban said. “You put those two things together, and it’s not clear that we’re going to be talking about a primary challenge as opposed to an open seat. He is not acting like someone who is particularly interested in running for reelection.”
T.J. Rooney, former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, echoed the idea that a 2028 run seems unlikely for Fetterman. Rooney said Fetterman has never fit the mold of a “typical” politician in the state.
“He’s an enigma in Pennsylvania politics,” Rooney said. “Politics in most states is fraternal, and whether you’re a Republican or Democrat matters not; what matters is you’re part of the fraternity, and he’s never been.”
There are, of course, other routes the senator could choose.
A person familiar with Fetterman’s thinking told NOTUS that the senator discussed potentially running for president as early as 2023. Still, that person said none of Fetterman’s three obvious options — reelection, retirement or running for president — would surprise them, and said they don’t believe Fetterman particularly enjoys the job.
A second former Fetterman staffer also told NOTUS Fetterman had hinted at potentially running for president, but didn’t seem to suspect the senator would actually run, given how often he criticizes the party. As for a primary challenge, this person suggested, the senator’s biggest vulnerabilities aren’t due to criticism from the left, but rather because he’s “simply not doing the job.”
Fetterman has drawn criticism for missing votes while in office, especially on Mondays. He is not particularly engaged in legislative maneuvering and does not typically attend Senate Democratic Caucus lunches. Because he does not abide by the Senate dress code, he often cannot actually go into the Senate chamber.
But Fetterman’s shown no signs of switching parties, and as the senator adamantly pointed out, 2028 is a long while away.
Still, the second former Fetterman staffer was among those who didn’t think the senator would run for reelection, similarly suggesting they don’t believe he is happy in the role.
“He’s a lame duck,” this person said. “And deep down, I think he knows it.”
Fetterman was asked on Newsmax on Wednesday whether he likes his job.
“Do I like my job? Is that the question?” Fetterman said. “Yeah, I mean, it’s a supreme –– it’s an honor, absolutely.”