HARRISBURG — Turnout was much higher among Democrats than Republicans in this week’s uncontested primary elections for Pennsylvania governor, a strong sign for the party heading into the general election
Still, political experts who spoke to Spotlight PA cautioned that information and enthusiasm were low because of the lack of competition in both primaries, that other factors play into higher Democratic participation, and that much can happen in that marquee race between now and the fall.
More than 1.1 million Democrats cast ballots for Gov. Josh Shapiro, compared to nearly 640,000 Republicans for Treasurer Stacy Garrity, according to unofficial results published by the Pennsylvania Department of State. That means for every three voters who cast their primary ballot for Garrity on Tuesday, roughly five voters did the same for Shapiro.
Taken alone, that isn’t the cleanest measure of voter enthusiasm. Political scientists and operatives who spoke to Spotlight PA noted the disparity may have less to do with the gubernatorial candidates themselves (who were both uncontested) than with the other races on the ballot. Democrats had several contested congressional primaries that may have driven up party participation statewide.
However, Democrats’ better turnout still held up in a race with fewer confounding factors.
The 91st state House District in Adams County was a rare seat that had two competitive primaries — three people ran for the Democratic nod, and three (including the incumbent, Rep. Dan Moul) ran for the Republican one.
The results? As a percentage of the parties’ total voters, GOP turnout in the district was 24.7%, and the Democratic turnout was significantly higher, 33.9%. (Republicans have more than twice the registered voters Democrats do in the 91st, so their raw numbers were higher.)
Lara Putnam, a historian at the University of Pittsburgh who studies election data, said the relative turnout in Adams County could be indicative of “a real gap of enthusiasm on the ground.” (She noted that the median registered Democrat in “such an overwhelmingly conservative place” is not necessarily the typical registered Democrat in the state.)
“It's a weird outlier. The fact that you've got strong Democratic turnout there is quite striking,” Putnam said.
Operatives on both sides of the aisle noted that it isn’t the only sign of trouble for Garrity, a Republican with much lower fundraising numbers and less name recognition than Shapiro.
Sam Chen, a Lehigh Valley-based GOP strategist, said there was less turnout for Garrity in counties that supported President Donald Trump in 2024 than he would have expected.
The president’s party historically also tends to do worse during midterm elections, and coupled with Trump’s low approval ratings, “the winds are against” Garrity, Chen said.
“People just weren't paying attention”
In the last gubernatorial race, Republicans had a crowded primary that ended with far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano of Franklin County winning the nomination while the rest of the candidates split more moderate GOP voters.
Mastriano went on to lose decisively to Shapiro. At the time, Republican operatives bemoaned the way the primary had gone and the party’s failure to build support around an alternative.
This time around, there was no primary (save an unsuccessful write-in campaign on Mastriano’s behalf). But Stephen Medvic, a political scientist from Franklin & Marshall College, said the open field may have had a downside for Garrity: It cost her valuable attention from voters, who would have likely seen GOP debates or more ads featuring Garrity if there had been a primary.
“People would have said, ‘Oh, you know, there is a competitive gubernatorial race on the Republican side. Let me hear from these candidates,’” Medvic said. “People just weren't paying attention because neither of the parties had a competitive gubernatorial race.”
There’s also an open question about how Garrity’s proximity to Trump — he endorsed her and she held a major fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida club — will work for her.
Medvic told Spotlight PA it probably helped Garrity stave off a primary challenge, whether or not that’s a good thing.
But Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist based in Western Pennsylvania, argued Garrity risks losing swing voters and independents. At the same time, Trump’s supporters may not turn out to vote for her since the president’s name isn’t on the ballot this fall.
“It's a double-decker problem they have,” Mikus said. “[You can] try to energize your base and repel independents or try to attract independents and stand up to Donald Trump and suppress the MAGA base.”
With about six months until the election, Jeff Coleman, a former Republican state lawmaker and political strategist, said Garrity needs to do something big to motivate potential donors and voters.
“Tell us what you’re really angry about, what you're really frustrated about in terms that don't just sound like you're trying to defeat a popular incumbent,” he said. “That you really are bringing a huge, larger-than-life idea about how to fix the state.”
Coleman said “catching fire” will be key to fundraising for Garrity, especially if she frames her candidacy as a grassroots campaign.
As of early May, Garrity reported having about $1.4 million in the bank. Shapiro reported having more than $37 million.
It won’t cut it for any Republican — not just Garrity — to campaign on policies previous candidates have long fought for, according to Coleman. He said it’s too common for Pennsylvania Republicans to run on preserving the state’s Rainy Day Fund, passing a state budget without a tax increase, or increasing access to public school alternatives.
"You've got to shoot much higher than that,” he said.
Medvic also noted that comparisons between primaries and general elections always have limitations.
Plus, he added, “There’s a long time until the fall.”
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